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| DPR captured Junta tank in East Ukraine. |
MASSIVE MILITARY LOSSES
IN DONBASS:
Since the Minsk Ceasefire
Agreement has consolidated on the front line in Eastern Ukraine more
information has come out about the actual losses by the Kiev Junta Forces in
the entire conflict in 2014-15. The military operation in Donbass,
the so-called Anti-Terrorist operation (ATO), Kiev’s two attempts to supress
the independence of the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, resulted in
the Junta army's huge losses of
weapons and vehicles. It has been
estimated that during the hostilities of 2014 the KJF lost up to 200 tanks destroyed
or captured by the Novorussians.
From the beginning of 2015
through the mid-February 50 tanks were destroyed, at least 40 taken, and a
large number of damaged vehicles had to be
removed for repairs. Therefore, in a month or so of fighting Kiev lost more
than 100 tanks, making a total of at least 300 losses from the beginning of the
military campaign. The age factor is also worth noting, most of the tanks in the KJF
service were produced about 30 years ago. This further increased the rate of
breakdowns and malfunctions.
It’s theoretically possible that
these losses could be made up since in addition to 600 T-64 that the KJF had at
the beginning of hostilities (although not all of them were operational), warehouses
stored an additional 600 T-64, 600 T-72, and 150 T-80. However, there were
serious problems with the introductions of these machines into the active
combat service as at least 300 of stored
T-72 were deemed unsuitable for repairs. In reality, many of these units are
now just carcasses of tanks after having been dismantled to fulfil export
contracts. Total of up to 800 tanks of this type were sold during the period of
independence, while the remaining served as the source of spare parts. Although T-64
was not exported (with the exception of a few tanks sold late in 2014),
unsuitable storage in outdoor locations led to failure of many units and
external equipment.
Porky Pie Poroshenko and his Defence
minister solemnly presented supposedly modernised and reconditioned weapons to
representativess of military units. Judging by the photos of these events, a total
of about a hundred of repaired and refurbished tanks were transferred. At least
a third of them were tanks intended for export to DR Congo and Nigeria and
produced in the pre-war times. It is also worth noting that the transfer of 31
tanks (a battalion) refurbished in the tank repairing facility in Lvov ended up
in a scandal. After the ceremonial presentation by Poroshenko, the
commander of the tank battalion of the 14th tank brigade refused to
accept the machines because of their unsatisfactory technical condition. Soon
after, all of them were returned to the facility for additional repairs.. |
| Abandoned tank graveyard in Junta-ruled Ukraine. |
According to the general director
of the Malishev factory who was present at one of the ceremonious transfers,
his plant managed to repair up to 20 damaged in battle tanks “Bulat” –
Ukrainian modification of T-64 – in three months. Considering that the Lvov
facility and Malishev factory are the best-preserved enterprises of the kind,
the whole Ukrainian industry is hardly capable of providing more than one tank
battalion a month. This means that it would need to work for 3-4 months to make
up for losses incurred in one month.
As to the supplies of new rather than refurbished machines, here the prospects are even less feasible. The only factory in Ukraine capable of producing new tanks is the Malishev factory in Kharkov. According to its general director Nikolai Belov, the current production cycle for a tank is 9 months. It is unclear how many tanks the factory can produce simultaneously. Based on the most optimistic assessment of “Ukroboronprom” (the Ukrainian state-owned corporation of military enterprises), in 2015 the Ukrainian tank industry might be able to produce up to 40 new tanks, but it will still be necessary to find reliable suppliers to replace some Russian-produced components, if the production is to reach even these numbers, modest as they are in comparison with the demands of the front.
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| Junta aircraft shot down by Novorussian Armed Forces. |
At the beginning of February, the
Junta agreed the state military contract for 2015. And although the document is
considered top secret, several politicians have already criticised it, thereby
partially revealing its content. From their statements, in particular, it is
clear that the main emphasis is on the production and repair of tanks, and that
considerable funds will be spent for this purpose. It is important to bear in
mind, though, that, eager to secure financing, many Ukrainian enterprises
apparently considerably overstate their capabilities. The problem seems so
serious that the Junta head of the Council of the National Security and Defence,
Turchonov, suggested punishment for the failure to fulfill the state defence
contracts. According to him, the failures to carry out work according to
contracts have become widespread in the industry. This looks logical
considering that the Ukrainian industry suffers from the deficit of not only
production capacity but also of workers. The hope to find several thousand
qualified workers for the monthly salary of $80-100 today appears like heavy
irony with the New York Times recently reporting that inflation in Junta-ruled
Ukraine had reached 272%!
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| Junta artillery captured by DPR forces. |
If the war is resumed the tank units in the Kiev Junta army will either be shrinking at the accelerating rate or will require import of ready-to-go tanks. If such imports do not come, two or three more battles at the scale of Debaltsevo cauldron – and the KJF will be facing serious shortages in tank units. It is important to note that Junta-ruled Ukraine has a serious competitor looking to buy tanks T-72 in Europe – Iraq. The military there suffers serious losses in heavy weapons in the fighting with Islamic groups. Out of 150 tanks “Adams” supplied by the US, the Iraqi tank units lost close to a half. They also lost tanks of the Soviet origin at a similar rate. Back in 2009, the Iraq Ministry of Defence announced the intent to buy up to 2,000 T-72 machines. In reality, later, only Hungary supplied 77 tanks from its storage, and they were modernised in American facilities. Additionally, Bulgaria supplied armoured machines, not tanks, but universal trucks MT-LB from old stocks.
With the start of hostilities in
Iraq in summer of 2014, the question again arose regarding the export of
weapons from Europe. In July, the leaders of the EU officially recognised the
need to support Iraq with weapons. The first countries announcing the delivery
of tanks were Hungary and Czech Republic. In summer, a well-publicised group of
58 Hungarian T-72 tanks which were supposed to be delivered to Ukraine were in
reality sent instead to Czech Republic for refurbishing.
Today, the effort of the Czech
repairmen is busy on fulfilling contracts with Iraq and Nigeria. In January,
Ukrainian airplane “Mria” delivered to Africa 16 tanks for the Nigerian
military. Several media sources interpreted this event as the beginning of
arming of Ukraine by Eastern European countries. Interestingly, according to
the statement of the Czech firm “Escalibur” that is engaged in the export of
refurbished tanks, the contract with Iraq on the export of more than a hundred
of units of tanks will fill the production capacity of the enterprise for two
years. So, Ukraine will have to wait for a long time to obtain tanks from Czech
Republic. The second supplier for these contracts – Hungary – today has only
several dozens of these machines left that require repair and reconditioning
and will not help Kiev in any way. As far as the countries of the former
Yugoslavia are concerned, Serbia is the only country with reasonable resources,
but Serbia, for obvious reasons, will not be helping Kiev against Russia.
Slovakia, which has in storage at least a hundred of T-72 as well as leftovers
of the military industry from the Soviet times, holds a similar position and
spoke out many times against arming Ukraine.
The Junta forces also suffered severe
losses in personnel, mostly concealed and hidden from the public in fake
reports of the casualties. Losses can be deducted from over
1000 destroyed and captured KJF armoured vehicles. In previous similar
conflicts (Chechnya, Syria, Iraq) the number of soldiers killed per armoured
vehicle destroyed was between 10 and 30. Therefore, it can be conservatively
estimated that KJF losses would be about 14 thousand KIA. There are also about
4 times this number of wounded, about a third of which will be severely
permanently disabled. This is far greater than the (widely discredited)
official Kiev claims of around 1500 KIA and 4500 WIA.
(DPR Prime Minister, Zakarchenko, talks to captured Junta troops before sending them home
unharmed. Watch on YouTube for English subtitles).
Rebel losses are lower, but probably
closer to Kiev's estimate of +8000 KIA than to the rebel claims of 1000-1500 KIA;
can be roughly estimated to be 5500 KIA and about 4 times this number of
wounded. As far as the rebel losses go, extrapolating them from the low number
of armoured vehicles they lost would be a mistake: the rebels had little armour at
all up until Minsk-1 truce, and even in the winter campaign, tended to use it
more cautiously and competently than the KJF. Their salvage/repair crews also
seemed to do a better job (as salvage is their major source of vehicles and
spare parts), and they did timely retreats instead of being encircled. Basically, the rebels rarely lost armour, so their
KIA/AV can be 50 or higher.
Civilian losses due to direct
enemy action are not concealed by either side and the estimates of about 5-6
thousand are probably correct.
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